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Perhaps you stopped caring about the Grammys following Beyoncé’s 2023 loss for Album of the Year. Truthfully, though, most of us lack the Weeknd’s courage to simply refuse to accept these accolades. Rather, we’re more like Drake—in and out of the spotlight year after year. This one surely appears less hectic. Nominations for the Big Four categories were reduced from ten to eight by the Grammy 2024, ensuring that there would not be any more out-there ABBA names up for grabs. It also featured three new categories, including Best African Music Performance. And there were some delightful nomination-day shocks, like Victoria Monét and boygenius showing up in the top categories. But it’s never that simple, especially with stale, downballot rock, rap, and country slates. Let’s see whether that tendency continues during the event itself. If nothing else, at least we’ll get Joni Mitchell and Tracy Chapman performances out of it.
General
Album of the Year
World Music Radio, Jon Batiste
The REndless Summer Vacation, Miley Cyrusecord, boygenius
Miley Cyrusecord, boygenius
Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd, Lana Del Rey
The Age of Pleasure, Janelle Monáe
Guts, Olivia Rodrigo
Midnights, Taylor Swift
SOS, SZA
Compared to the past few years, this slate is very modest – no ABBA, no Ye, no Brandi Carlile or H.E.R. album. Yeah, there’s no rap or country either, but that’s far from a novel occurrence here. This slate is also Academy-tested with five of the eight performers being prior Album of the Year candidates. After Harry Styles’s contentious win last year, are voters planning to play things safe?
As the night’s top nominee, with nine nominations, SZA is the automatic favorite: an A-lister who delivered a widely lauded, discourse-dominating record that has stayed relevant more than a year after its release. Yet her previous Grammy losses may constitute a red flag. Prior to 2024, SZA had just one victory off 15 nominations, for “Kiss Me More” with Doja Cat. This is also her first AOTY nod as a soloist. That could mean nothing — she’s still likely to clean up wonderfully in the smaller categories, and everyone’s gotta get their first major win somewhere — but it’s hard to feel 100 percent confident after last year, when Beyoncé was also the top nominee and presumed AOTY favorite.
If not SZA, then maybe it’ll be Taylor Swift. Midnights was just undeniable, selling millions and inspiring one of the largest tours in history. She’s also one of two past winners on this list. In fact, Swift is presently tied for most AOTY awards among musicians, a record she holds with Frank Sinatra, Stevie Wonder, and Paul Simon. But I’m not convinced the institutionalists at the Academy will allow her shatter that record so easily. Grammy voters are typically oblivious to public opinion, and they may desire their own year-defining album, independent of Swift’s already tremendous year.
The wild card here is Jon Batiste, who I openly projected would be one-and-done in the general categories following his 2022 breakthrough. Nope! With this nomination, Batiste is officially a Grammy favorite — and a lot more formidable competitor than H.E.R. or Carlile ever were. Even without his former Late Show platform or a Pixar-funded Oscar campaign for 2022’s Soul, he still hit the top of the list. The Academy just really loves this man. His lone weakness is having less nominations this year than in 2022.
Will win: SOS, SZA
Should win: SOS, SZA
Record of the Year
“Worship,” Jon Batiste
“Not Strong Enough,” boygenius
“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
“What Was I Made For?,” Billie Eilish
“On My Mama,” Victoria Monét
“Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo
“Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift
“Kill Bill,” SZA
Since the Grammys eliminated the controversial nomination committees in 2021, no artist has won Album of the Year and Record or Song of the Year in the same night. That was particularly confounding last year, when the Academy decided to reward Styles for Harry’s House but not its more successful single, “As It Was.” It’s hard to declare something a trend after just two years, but Styles’s case makes me confident that general-field consensus is a thing of the past. That also forces us to play a bit of three-dimensional chess: If SZA is winning AOTY, who’s taking the song categories?
It helps that “Kill Bill” wasn’t quite as big of a smash as some of the other songs here, like “Flowers.” But Miley Cyrus doesn’t feel like much of a threat – this is her first general-field outing, and as big as “Flowers” was, it fizzled out before voting began. Batiste’s “Worship,” Monét’s “On My Mama,” and boygenius’s “Not Strong Enough” are all terrific tracks, but this category is about smashes. “What Was I Made For?,” Billie Eilish’s Barbie tearjerker, might fit the bill, but the Academy may be wary of giving her a third ROTY trophy in four years. “Vampire” boasts a (excuse the pun) gut-wrenching performance from Olivia Rodrigo, but I struggle to imagine the song truly winning – like “Flowers,” it feels like the public has moved on from it.
You know who the public isn’t tired of, though? Taylor Swift. She’s still topping the charts, playing sold-out performances, and dominating the headlines (and NFL broadcasts). A prize for a category Swift has never won would make substantially less noise than in AOTY while still enabling the Grammys celebrate the artist of the moment.
Will win: “Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift
Should win: “Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo
Song of the Year
“A&W,” Lana Del Rey
“Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift
“Butterfly,” Jon Batiste
“Dance the Night,” Dua Lipa
“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
“Kill Bill,” SZA
“Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo
“What Was I Made For?,” Billie Eilish
Did someone at the Academy mix up this list with Record of the Year’s? It’s unusual to see a song like “Not Strong Enough,” which brings together three top-tier songwriters, in the performance-based Record of the Year category but not this writing-based one. On the other hand, Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night” sounded like a shoo-in for an ROTY nom rather than a triumph of songwriting (though I could imagine the Academy wishing to particularly thank Barbie’s music leads, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, who aren’t credited on Eilish’s song). Anyway, this trophy is going to a capital-S songwriter, an artist whose lyrics and writing process are vital to their work. That has been Taylor Swift her whole career, yet now she’s on her sixth SOTY nomination without a win. “Anti-Hero,” the biggest success of her career with a brilliant message about stardom, might break the spell.
“What Was I Made For?” is the same song in different clothing — another thoughtful meditation on fame, this time with poignant piano and strings to match. And unlike ROTY, Eilish has just one win in SOTY, for “bad guy” in 2020, so the Academy could award her here with less baggage. Eilish’s last major showing, in 2022, saw her go zero for seven, so I have to wonder if the Academy wants to ease her back into the big leagues ahead of her next album (and second Oscar to boot).
Last year witnessed the ultimate left-field SOTY winner: “Just Like That,” a self-written folk song by living great Bonnie Raitt. She benefited from the spotlight around a recent Lifetime Achievement Grammy, but like the past several ROTY winners, her success also sent a loud message about the sort of songs the new-look Academy is emphasizing. As I stated in AOTY, it’s hard to discern if the Academy is preparing to retreat or double down. If it goes the latter route, Batiste’s “Butterfly” will receive the win. The Academy is clearly enthused about the song after Batiste missed in SOTY in 2022. But it would be easier to foresee such a dark horse if Swift weren’t in the conversation too.
Will win: “Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift
Should win: “A&W,” Lana Del Rey
Best New Artist
Gracie Abrams
Fred again..
Ice Spice
Jelly Roll
Coco Jones
Noah Kahan
The War and Treaty
Victoria Monét
Before the nominations came out, most analysts picked Ice Spice as the favorite because to her hitmaking bridge of pop and drill music. She underperformed, though — her only other nods came with aid from Barbie (for “Barbie World”) and Taylor Swift (for “Karma”). That’s not to say her inventive music doesn’t merit the medal, but the Academy seems to be searching for something more recognizable here. That may be Coco Jones, or it could be Monét. Both are superb vocalists with classic sensibilities, but Monét is the only performer on our list with another Big Four nomination (“On My Mama,” in ROTY). If recent Grammys history is any indicator — three of the past four winners also showed up in other top categories — then she is a near lock.
Will win: Victoria Monét
Should win: Ice Spice
Producer of the Year
Jack Antonoff
D’Mile
Hit-Boy
Metro Boomin
Dan Nigro
I tend to root for variety at the Grammys. The Academy has always had a great problem with retreating to the familiar, and there are more than enough prizes to throw about. But I also have to root for the most deserving effort. So I’m sorry to the entire internet, but … Jack Antonoff should get this prize! Yes, it’d be Antonoff’s third consecutive Producer of the Year title, matching Babyface’s mid-’90s streak. But his portfolio speaks for itself. None of the other names produced numerous Album of the Year nominees. And if you’re dragging out the trite argument that all of Antonoff’s music sounds the same, I don’t know what you’re hearing between Swift’s contemplative synth-pop on Midnights and Lana Del Rey’s beautiful California pop on Ocean Blvd. If it were a different year, I’d be riding for D’Mile, who’s digging into the past to develop the future of R&B, or Dan Nigro, a great Gen-Z whisperer. But as Del Rey sings in an Ocean Blvd song dedicated to Antonoff, “When you know, you know.”
Will win: Jack Antonoff
Should win: Jack Antonoff
Songwriter of the Year
Edgar Barrera
Jessie Jo Dillon
Shane McAnally
Theron Thomas
Justin Tranter
In this category’s second year, the Academy’s songwriters wing is offering us a pleasant shake-up from the rest of the general-field prizes. We’ve got two independent-minded country composers, a pop trailblazer, an R&B/hip-hop hitmaker, and one of the key personalities in the regional-Mexican-music explosion. Edgar Barrera has had by far the most impact, as an unofficial member of Grupo Frontera, which helped drive the growth of regional-Mexican music in 2023. His success would be kind of a salve after the Academy shut out música Mexicana elsewhere. Then again, last year this trophy went to the category’s most recognizable name: Tobias Jesso Jr. So I’m going with Justin Tranter, who has logged recent cuts for Cyrus and Reneé Rapp and has a former Song of the Year nod for Julia Michaels’s “Issues.” Tranter is also working hard to ingratiate oneself to the Academy, including the thankless chore of presenting the Grammys pre-show.
Will win: Justin Tranter
Should win: Edgar Barrera
Grammy 2024 : Pop & Dance/Electronic
Best Pop Solo Performance
“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
“Paint the Town Red,” Doja Cat
“What Was I Made For?,” Billie Eilish
“Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo
“Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift
This category has become a type of second-place Record of the Year — even when the top winner is nominated here (as they typically are), the Academy has awarded Pop Solo Performance to a different song that was also nominated in ROTY. That will undoubtedly hold true this year, when four out of the five tracks are also ROTY nominees. (Sorry, Doja!) While “Flowers” won’t have much of a chance in the generals, I think its strong run on the charts last spring and Cyrus’s nostalgic performance make it an appropriate second-place option.
Will win: “Flowers”
Should win: “Vampire”
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
“Thousand Miles,” Miley Cyrus with Brandi Carlile
“Candy Necklace,” Lana Del Rey with Jon Batiste
“Never Felt So Alone,” Labrinth with Billie Eilish
“Karma,” Taylor Swift featuring Ice Spice
“Ghost in the Machine,” SZA featuring Phoebe Bridgers
This one tends to go to an event partnership, a surprise coupling between two actual A-listers. None of these tracks seem like that — not even the “Karma” remix, which doesn’t allow Ice Spice shine and lands closer to a canny PR move. (Can you believe Swift was dating Matty Healy less than a year ago?) So I’m going for the song with the most nominations power: “Ghost in the Machine,” pairing nine-timer SZA with seven-timer Phoebe Bridgers.
Will win: “Ghost in the Machine”
Should win: “Never Felt So Alone”
Best Pop Vocal Album
Chemistry, Kelly Clarkson
Endless Summer Vacation, Miley Cyrus
Guts, Olivia Rodrigo
-, Ed Sheeran
Midnights, Taylor Swift
It’s been eight years and five albums since Swift last won this award, for 1989 in 2016. So is the pop field over her? Probably not. Reputation and Lover simply weren’t as large as her world-conquering synth-pop record, while folklore certainly won record of the Year owing to a coalition of support from rock, alternative, country, and roots voters. Despite that history, Midnights is the apparent favorite – it’s a pop album through and through, and a large one, after opening to a rare million-unit week. If anyone may surprise, it will be Rodrigo, who won for Sour in 2022.
Will win: Midnights
Should win: Guts
Best Dance/Electronic Recording
“Blackbox Life Recorder 21f,” Aphex Twin
“Loading,” James Blake
“Higher Than Ever Before,” Disclosure
“Strong,” Romy & Fred again..
“Rumble,” Skrillex, Fred again.. & Flowdan
Dance voters have a reputation for being cautious of foreigners. But last year, voters recognized one of pop’s biggest performers, Beyoncé, for her work on Renaissance. Amid some category rebuilding, the dance and pop areas have now been united. That means many more pop members will be voting in the dance categories, so name recognition is important. That stands to benefit a song like “Rumble” because to Skrillex’s history of hits and collaborating with pop bands and Fred again..’s ascension into true electronic prominence (despite “Strong” being Fred’s nicer song).
Will win: “Rumble”
Should win: “Strong”
Best Pop Dance Recording
“Baby Don’t Hurt Me,” David Guetta, Anne-Marie & Coi Leray
“Miracle,” Calvin Harris with Ellie Goulding
“Padam Padam,” Kylie Minogue
“One in a Million,” Bebe Rexha & David Guetta
“Rush,” Troye Sivan
The Academy classified this new category as “up-tempo, danceable music that follows a pop arrangement.” I believed it would contain songs like “Padam Padam” and “Rush,” plus many future Dua Lipa tracks, but I didn’t factor for all the David Guetta nominees we’d have to endure. I also didn’t expect it to lead me to cheering for an Ellie Goulding–Calvin Harris reunion in 2024 CE. But if the Grammys want to acknowledge big-tent EDM, they might as well pick a good song.
Will win: “Rush”
Should win: “Miracle”
Best Dance/Electronic Album
Playing Robots Into Heaven, James Blake
For That Beautiful Feeling, the Chemical Brothers
Actual Life 3 (January 1 – September 9 2022), Fred again..
Kx5, Kx5
Quest for Fire, Skrillex
James Blake stands a chance for his best-reviewed record in years, and don’t count out the three-time winner Chemical Brothers. But like the Dance/Electronic Recording category, this will presumably be mentor versus mentee: Skrillex versus Fred again.. With four nods overall, this one is coming up Fred again.. — again.
Will win: Actual Life 3 (January 1 – September 9 2022)
Should win: Actual Life 3 (January 1 – September 9 2022)
Grammy 2024 : Metal, Rock & Alternative
Best Rock Performance
“Sculptures of Anything Goes,” Arctic Monkeys
“More Than a Love Song,” Black Pumas
“Not Strong Enough,” boygenius
“Rescued,” Foo Fighters
“Lux AEterna,” Metallica
Another year of the Grammys falling back on their same uninspired go-tos in the rock categories. As fantastic as it is to see boygenius getting attention throughout the Rock and Alternative scene, that’s dampened by the fact that their competition is so stuck in the past. (That’s even true of Black Pumas; they’re younger and add some necessary diversity to the crowd, but they aren’t interested in sounding contemporary.) “Not Strong Enough” is by far the freshest-sounding song of the bunch, which means it’s surely going to lose to Foo Fighters, especially with the added emotional heft of “Rescued,” the band’s first song after Taylor Hawkins’s death.
Will win: “Rescued”
Should win: “Not Strong Enough”
Best Metal Performance
“Bad Man,” Disturbed
“Phantom of the Opera,” Ghost
“72 Seasons,” Metallica
“Hive Mind,” Slipknot
“Jaded,” Spiritbox
Okay, I’ll give it to the Academy: Metallica’s return to form on 72 Seasons was really darn excellent. But you know what’s better? Spiritbox, the only band here that started in the past ten years and is lead by a woman. They’re legitimately pushing the needle in metal with dynamic, genre-bending songs like “Jaded” – something the rest of these bands aren’t doing much of these days.
Will win: “72 Seasons”
Should win: “Jaded”
Best Rock Song
“Angry,” the Rolling Stones
“Ballad of a Homeschooled Girl,” Olivia Rodrigo
“Emotion Sickness,” Queens of the Stone Age
“Not Strong Enough,” boygenius
“Rescued,” Foo Fighters
One shining gleam of light in the rock categories: a nomination for Rodrigo’s bonkers-fun pop-punk tirade “Ballad of a Homeschooled Girl.” The old heads may not regard Rodrigo as a rock star, but it’s Grammys-official now. And this music is a genuine triumph of songwriting: the laugh-out-loud second verse, the instant-sing-along chorus, the “Can’t think of a third line” lyric. Too bad it’s going to lose to Foo Fighters (or, worse, a 21st-century Rolling Stones song).
Will win: “Rescued”
Should win: “Ballad of a Homeschooled Girl”
Best Rock Album
But Here We Are, Foo Fighters
Starcatcher, Greta Van Fleet
72 Seasons, Metallica
This Is Why, Paramore
In Times New Roman …, Queens of the Stone Age
With boygenius’s album falling under Alternative, there aren’t really any solid options here — not even This Is Why, a rare miss from Paramore. Let’s just get this over with.
Will win: But Here We Are
Should win: 72 Seasons
Best Alternative Music Performance
“Belinda Says,” Alvvays
“Body Paint,” Arctic Monkeys
“Cool About It,” boygenius
“A&W,” Lana Del Rey
“This Is Why,” Paramore
Women! Bands created in the 21st century! Musical variety! How refreshing. Once again, the Alternative categories earn their moniker, seeming considerably closer to contemporary music than the Rock area. This one is a two-horse contest, between boygenius and Del Rey (for once, the two most deserved). If there’s a song here that actually sounds alternative, though, it’s “A&W.”
Will win: “A&W”
Should win: “A&W”
Best Alternative Music Album
The Car, Arctic Monkeys
The Record, boygenius
Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd, Lana Del Rey
Cracker Island, Gorillaz
I Inside the Old Year Dying, PJ Harvey
This one also boils down to Del Rey and boygenius. While I personally favored Del Rey’s vast, experimental Ocean Blvd, I don’t see the Grammys letting boygenius leave empty-handed like member Phoebe Bridgers did in 2021.
Will win: The Record
Should win: Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd
Grammy 2024 : R&B
Best R&B Performance
“Summer Too Hot,” Chris Brown
“Back to Love,” Robert Glasper featuring SiR & Alex Isley
“ICU,” Coco Jones
“How Does It Make You Feel,” Victoria Monét
“Kill Bill,” SZA
The R&B field is one of this year’s most packed, with three of the most-nominated artists: SZA, Monét, and Jones. R&B voters generally spread the wealth, so maybe don’t expect a SZA sweep. Do expect her to take an early award here, though.
Will win: “Kill Bill”
Should win: “Kill Bill”
Best Traditional R&B Performance
“Simple,” Babyface featuring Coco Jones
“Lucky,” Kenyon Dixon
“Hollywood,” Victoria Monét featuring Earth, Wind & Fire and Hazel Monét
“Good Morning,” PJ Morton starring Susan Carol
“Love Language,” SZA
Two-year-old Hazel Monét became the youngest-ever Grammy nomination owing to a feature on her mom’s song “Hollywood and could have more history to make at the ceremony. Traditionally (insert eye roll), this title goes to the vocalist with the biggest pipes, yet Victoria Monét has never been known for belting. But if SZA’s repping the new school with SOS, I have to assume Monét’s old-school soul has a leg up — especially with a little aid from Earth, Wind & Fire. How do you argue with a tune that dang smooth? (I would also keep an eye on Jones, who obviously has pipes.)
Will win: “Hollywood”
Should win: “Hollywood”
Best R&B Song
“Angel,” Halle Bailey
“Back to Love,” Robert Glasper featuring SiR & Alex Isley
“ICU,” Coco Jones
“On My Mama,” Victoria Monét
“Snooze,” SZA
SZA and Monét each earned a type of nomination triple crown, garnering recognitions for three separate tracks throughout the R&B sector. That makes things a bit confused here given that SZA’s Song of the Year nominee, “Kill Bill,” isn’t also her nominee for Best R&B Song, while Monét’s Best R&B Song nominee, “On My Mama,” garnered a Record of the Year mention but not Song. Still not following? It doesn’t really matter because SZA is the best respected songwriter of this bunch and will grab the trophy.
Will win: “Snooze”
Should win: “Snooze”
Best Progressive R&B Album
Since I Have a Lover, 6LACK
The Love Album: Off the Grid, Diddy
Nova, Terrace Martin and James Fauntleroy
The Age of Pleasure, Janelle Monáe
SOS, SZA
The Academy’s decision to title this category “Progressive R&B” — a phrase nobody uses outside record-label offices — looks even sillier with Diddy among the finalists. At least he never offered much of a challenge in this category anyway, with two Album of the Year nominees in SZA and Janelle Monáe. As fantastic as Monáe’s album was, this should be an easy purchase for SZA given how SOS’s success spread far beyond the R&B scene. A loss could be a harbinger of a weird night across the board.
Will win: SOS
Should win: SOS
Best R&B Album
Girls Night Out, Babyface
What I Didn’t Tell You (Deluxe), Coco Jones
Special Occasion, Emily King
Jaguar II, Victoria Monét
Clear 2: Soft Life EP, Summer Walker
It’s been three years since the Academy nominated all men in this category. Now, four of the nominees are women, while the fifth, Babyface, is up for an album that features solely women and non-binary singers. We’ve got everyone from top nominees Monét and Jones to Summer Walker’s very first Grammy nod. There are no losses here.
Will win: Jaguar II
Should win: Jaguar II
Grammy 2024 : Rap
Best Rap Performance
“The Hillbillies, Baby Keem featuring Kendrick Lamar
“Love Letter,” Black Thought
“Rich Flex,” Drake & 21 Savage
“Scientists & Engineers,” Killer Mike starring André 3000, Future, and Eryn Allen Kane
“Players,” Coi Leray
When it comes to the rap categories, don’t bet against Kendrick Lamar. The last time he lost in Best Rap Performance was a decade ago for “Swimming Pools (Drank)”; since then, he has won a staggering six prizes, including one he shared with his cousin, Baby Keem. If anything else on this weird slate may pose a threat, it’s Killer Mike, who could be rewarded for getting André 3000 to lay down the flute and spew a verse.
Will win: “The Hillbillies”
Should win: “Scientists & Engineers”
Best Melodic Rap Performance
“Sittin’ on Top of the World,” Burna Boy with 21 Savage
“Attention,” Doja Cat
“Spin Bout U,” Drake & 21 Savage
“All My Life,” Lil Durk featuring J. Cole
“Low,” SZA
At least the rap voters had fun here. It’s fantastic to see some variation with SZA and Burna Boy along with two earned nods for 21 Savage. And without one massive hit or year-defining rapper soaring above the rest, this trophy could potentially go in either direction. I’d love to see Doja Cat correctly recognized in the rap field, where she belongs, but this feels like the most likely area for Drake & 21 to spin some gold.
Will win: “Spin Bout U”
Should win: “Attention”
Best Rap Song
“Attention,” Doja Cat
“Barbie World,” Nicki Minaj & Ice Spice featuring Aqua
“Just Wanna Rock,” Lil Uzi Vert
“Rich Flex,” Drake & 21 Savage
“Scientists & Engineers,” Killer Mike starring André 3000, Future, and Eryn Allen Kane
Before his huge showing this year, Killer Mike had been nominated for just two Grammys, one of which he won for an OutKast feature. His current flood of popularity makes a trophy feel imminent, and given his reputation as a rapper’s rapper, his peers may be most inclined to honor his pen here.
Will win: “Scientists & Engineers”
Should win: “Attention”
Best Rap Album
Her Loss, Drake & 21 Savage
Michael, Killer Mike
Heroes & Villains, Metro Boomin
King’s Disease III, Nas
Utopia, Travis Scott
It’s not new for the Grammys to honor the biggest albums instead of the best ones in this category, but it feels especially glaring here, where we’re settling for below-mid performances from Drake and 21 Savage (to say nothing of Nas, whom the Academy keeps inexplicably nominating even after it finally gave him a trophy in 2021). I wasn’t anticipating, like, a billy woods nomination (though I would welcome it), but would something like Noname’s Sundial be too much to ask for? Or if we’re talking hits, could we at least go for Ice Spice’s Like..? EP? If the Academy insists on adhering to the same old, same old, I hope (and anticipate) it’ll recognize Killer Mike, who’s at least striving to push the envelope.
Will win: Michael
Should win: Michael
Country
Best Country Solo Performance
“In Your Love,” Tyler Childers
“Buried,” Brandy Clark
“Fast Car,” Luke Combs
“The Last Thing on My Mind,” Dolly Parton
“White Horse,” Chris Stapleton
Right away, you can count out Luke Combs’s smash hit “Fast Car,” a cover, which got its only nod here. Country Grammy voters don’t care about singles – they care about their elders and, of days, Chris Stapleton (whose songs could be mistaken for classics themselves). In this category, they’ve got choices, between Stapleton’s southern-rock scorcher “White Horse” and Dolly Parton’s rerecording of a song she first sung nearly 55 years ago. It’s a bit of a toss-up, but I’m leaning toward Dolly receiving some gold after a highly visible year. Although if the Grammys want some good old-fashioned country music that still manages to look forward, there’s Tyler Childers, who’s on a continual journey to open up the world of country and roots music.
Will win: “White Horse”
Should win: “In Your Love”
Best Country Duo/Group Performance
“High Note,” Dierks Bentley featuring Billy Strings
“Nobody’s Nobody,” Brothers Osborne
“I Remember Everything,” Zach Bryan with Kacey Musgraves
“Kissing Your Picture (Is So Cold),” Vince Gill & Paul Franklin
“Save Me,” Jelly Roll featuring Lainey Wilson
“We Don’t Fight Anymore,” Carly Pearce with Chris Stapleton
Last year, Zach Bryan garnered a mere one Grammy nomination after analysts thought the burgeoning maverick would show up across the board. That eventually happened a year later with three nods on the heels of his blockbuster single “I Remember Everything,” featuring Kacey Musgraves — a familiar face to the Academy who also had a dismal showing for her last album, star-crossed. It’s hard to get a perfect sense on how things will go for Bryan and Musgraves this year, but I have to think the previously tepid Academy’s embrace of “I Remember Everything” is a good omen.
Will win: “I Remember Everything”
Should win: “I Remember Everything”
Best Country Song
“Buried,” Brandy Clark
“I Remember Everything,” Zach Bryan with Kacey Musgraves
“In Your Love,” Tyler Childers
“Last Night,” Morgan Wallen
“White Horse,” Chris Stapleton
Like Combs’s “Fast Car,” Morgan Wallen’s pop breakout “Last Night” managed only one nod — and Wallen himself doesn’t even share in it, as he’s not a credited songwriter. Assuming “Everything” and “White Horse” both win in the performance categories, I’d expect one of them to double up here. And if the Academy is coming around on Bryan the way it looks like, the fresh face might have the edge.
Will win: “I Remember Everything”
Should win: “In Your Love”
Best Country Album
Rolling Up the Welcome Mat, Kelsea Ballerini
Brothers Osborne, Brothers Osborne
Zach Bryan, Zach Bryan
Rustin’ in the Rain, Tyler Childers
Bell Bottom Country, Lainey Wilson
It’s kind of interesting how different the Grammys can be from the CMAs and ACMs, country’s two major self-awarded programs. Take Lainey Wilson, who is one of mainstream country’s brightest new performers and just received the top distinction of CMA Entertainer of the Year in November but is up for only two categories at the Grammys. I’ve started to consider it as a given that the Grammys won’t ever align with the country awards, which is a shame given how deserved Wilson is for her breakout record. Nothing here feels like a juggernaut (Stapleton’s record, Higher, will be eligible next cycle), but this will surely go Bryan’s way given his previous nominations – even if he misses in the song or performance categories.
Will win: Zach Bryan
Should win: Bell Bottom Country
Latin
Best Latin Pop Album
La Cuarta Hoja, Pablo Alborán
Beautiful Humans, Vol. 1, AleMor
A Ciegas, Paula Arenas
La Neta, Pedro Capó
Don Juan, Maluma
X Mí (Vol. 1), Gaby Moreno
The Latin Grammys aren’t always strong forecasters of the all-genre Grammys and vice versa. But Pablo Alborán has been nominated for twenty-nine Latin Grammys and still hasn’t won a single one. As he’s picked up those nods, he has also been a constant in the main Grammys’ Latin Pop category with four nominations for his previous four albums. Could this be Alborán’s year? There are two hurdles standing in his way: (1) He’s from Spain, not Latin America (though that hasn’t stopped Rosalía), and (2) the presence of an A-list Latino artist in Maluma, whose album Don Juan is a thrilling excursion through the spectrum of Latin music. Lo siento, Pablo.
Will win: Don Juan, Maluma
Should win: Don Juan, Maluma
Best Música Urbana Album
Saturno, Rauw Alejandro
Mañana Será Bonito, Karol G
Data, Tainy
It’s a bit depressing to see just three albums up in the música urbana category, implying less than 40 entries were submitted. Still, this is a fantastic possibility for one of three albums to garner some shine in a year without Bad Bunny (nadie sabe will be eligible next year). Karol G undoubtedly has the edge after a large tour and a highly anticipated Shakira duet, and recognizing a woman here would be a terrific statement from the Academy. But I’d be equally happy to see Rauw Alejandro capture the gold for his raucous space-reggaeton odyssey, Saturno.
Will win: Mañana Será Bonito
Should win: Saturno
Global
Best Global Music Performance
“Shadow Forces,” Arooj Aftab, Vijay Iyer & Shahzad Ismaily
“Alone,” Burna Boy
“Feel,” Davido
“Milagro y Desastre,” Silvana Estrada
“Abundance in Millets,” Falu & Gaurav Shah featuring PM Narendra Modi
“Pashto,” Béla Fleck, Edgar Meyer & Zakir Hussain starring Rakesh Chaurasia
“Todo Colores,” Ibrahim Maalouf with Cimafunk & Tank and the Bangas
The establishment of the new Best African Music Performance award put this young category in a bit of limbo. It’s unclear what makes a song by an African musician qualified here or there — like Davido’s singles “Feel” and “Unavailable,” two amapiano songs that are oddly nominated in those distinct categories. That’s not a knock on Davido, who deserves to be enjoying a fantastic year at the Grammys, but it’ll surely make voting in both categories more difficult. That said, an Afrobeats or amapiano song didn’t win this category before the split, and I wouldn’t anticipate that to change now. The global voters tend to favor musicianship, and once they find an artist they like, they can’t resist awarding them. So I’m forecasting a win for the unusual combo of Arooj Aftab, Vijay Iyer, and Shahzad Ismaily after Aftab won here just two years ago.
Will win: “Shadow Forces”
Should win: “Milagro y Desastre”
Best African Music Performance
“Amapiano,” Asake & Olamide
“City Boys,” Burna Boy
“Unavailable,” Davido featuring Musa Keys
“Rush,” Ayra Starr
“Water,” Tyla
The Academy blanked on “Essence” and “Calm Down” before, but thanks to this new category, voters can finally award a peaking African hit in Tyla’s amapiano breakout, “Water.” That’s just one of the deserving entries with a chance to make history as the inaugural winner in this category alongside Asake and Olamide’s bouncy “Amapiano,” Davido’s groovy “Unavailable,” or Ayra Starr’s shimmering “Rush.” No outcome would quite be disappointing, but a Burna Boy win would feel anticlimactic since he’s the only nominee who has already won a Grammy. If the Grammys really want to listen to more African music, this is their moment to demonstrate it.
Will win: “Water”
Should win: “Amapiano”
Best Global Music Album
Epifanías, Susana Baca
History, Bokanté
I Told Them …, Burna Boy
Timeless, Davido
This Moment, Shakti
Like the rest of the global categories, it’s hard to determine the direction Best Global Music Album is moving in. Last year, Masa Takumi won the category’s first-ever trophy for a Japanese musician following a streak of five African winners. More history could be made this year with 79-year-old Peruvian legend Susana Baca up for her very first Grammy. Or the Academy might top off a record year of celebrating African music by rewarding Burna Boy, a winner in 2021, or Davido, the only other African musician to run the table in Global Music Performance, African Music Performance, and Global Music Album.
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